A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
