A mere eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or the source for Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. As Rogers swept in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard query to address. History, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have just won a ten-match winning streak, they look weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again versus United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced right inside the post from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the football into the top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
